Trump 2020 and other President 2020 Contracts

browse

Notes

  1. FTX Token (FTT) is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States of America, you are not permitted to transact in FTT.
  2. Trading on FTX is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States of America, you are not permitted to trade on FTX.
  3. FTX retains the final right to interpretation of its rules and conditions on these and all contracts.
  4. FTX retains the final right to modify terms of its rules and conditions on these and all contracts.
  5. Trading Trump 2020 and other President 2020 contracts is not permitted by residents of the United States, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the UAE, Cambodia, Turkey, mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, and other FTX prohibited jurisdictions.

UPDATE 2020-11-09 06am HKT:

Joe Biden has won the 2020 US Presidential election according to the settlement criteria defined for our President 2020 contracts. All presidential contracts (except for TRUMPFEB) have been settled accordingly.

 

However, some users long TRUMP, long TRUMPWIN, or short BIDEN have complained about the settlement criteria being followed as defined, and instead want us to modify the rules to favor their preferred candidate. As such, we have decided, just this once, to allow these users to effectively hold their positions until February 1st, 2021 UTC. If, by then, Trump has been unambiguously reelected to the presidency, they will pay out $1.  FTX reserves the right to interpret the settlement criteria here.

 

To opt into this, users will have to accept following on https://ftx.com/trump-tokens:

 

I understand that:

  • According to how the contract was always phrased, TRUMP was correctly settled to 0, BIDEN to 1, and TRUMPWIN should be redeemable for 0
  • Despite this, FTX is this once choosing to grant an extension on the settlement date, and that FTX will not grant similar extensions in the future
  • By accepting this, any balances I have in TRUMP_TOKEN (representing a long TRUMP position before expiration), SHORT_BIDEN_TOKEN (representing a short BIDEN position before expiration), or TRUMPWIN balances will be converted into TRUMPFEBWIN balances on 11/15/2020, 10:00:00 PM
  • After accepting this, I may also convert them early
  • The settlement of TRUMPFEBWIN tokens are at FTX's total discretion, and promise not to complain about the manner in which it is settled

TRUMPFEBWIN will be redeemable for $1 based on the same settlement criteria as TRUMPFEB.

BIDENFEBLOSE will be redeemable for $1 if Biden is unambiguously not re-elected to the presidency by February 1st, 2021, else $0.

Note that, as was announced at the time:

1) Trump has already lost according to the rules of the contract

2) This special case exception is only available to users who can and do convert using https://ftx.com/trump-tokens.  If a user is unable to do so, including because of jurisdiction, there is no recourse.  They have already lost according to the terms of the contract.

3) There will be no further discussion or appeals on these rules.  If a user continually does so their account may be closed down without warning.

 

UPDATE 2020-11-06 6am HKT:

No winner has been declared yet.  However, we understand that one could be declared in the next few days.  If one is, anyone expiring to $0 will have the choice to pay $0.10 to delay their settlement to February.

 

We understand that some people want to have a pure February contract.  As such, we are also listing a new contract, TRUMPFEB, which expires to $1 if Trump is president on 2021-02-01 UTC and $0 otherwise.  To be clear, the current TRUMP contract might also expire in February 2021 if no winner is called before then; but TRUMPFEB will definitely not expire until February.  This also means that if you short TRUMPFEB, it won't settle until February.

TRUMPFEB has identical parameters to TRUMP except for the expiration timing.

Furthermore, if the election is called and the old TRUMP contract were to expire to $0, you will have the option, if you want, to pay $0.10 to convert it into TRUMPFEB.

-----

 

To clarify the below for TRUMP: we will be following the original rules for the contract, and will not expire the contracts unless a candidate has reached a majority of the electoral college votes or every one of the selected publications has called the election.  If neither of those happen, the contracts will settle to whoever is president in February.

In addition, if the contracts do settle earlier than February, we are giving another option to users whose contracts expire to 0 if they want.  See below for details.

 

UPDATE 2020-11-04 5pm EST:

The 2020 presidential election has just happened, and ballots are being counted.

As of now, no winner has been declared.  However, there is substantial chance that Biden may be projected to receive 270 Electoral College votes today.  It seems unlikely but not impossible that criterion (4) will be triggered very soon (each of the necessary media outlets calling the election), but (3) is getting close.

However, there is the possibility of looming recounts and/or court challenges.

Note that the below only explores one possible scenario; as of now anything is possible, including a clear victory by either candidate.  The below would only apply in a case where, otherwise, the rules as laid out would be grounds for fully settling all contracts.

As such, we are considering the following option to give additional flexibility to TRUMP holders:

1) The President 2020 contracts will not be settled until at least 2020-11-05, 5pm EST.
2) At any time between then and 2020-11-09, 5pm EST, it is possible that a set of states will meet all of the following criteria: (a) total electoral votes > 270; (b) Biden with a lead in each of them greater than the officially reported number of outstanding votes; (c) criterion (4) is not met; (d) there is no similar set of states whose margins exceed those that trigger a recount in those states; and (e) there is no further effect to prolong the life of the contracts.
3) In the above case -- that criterion (3) is minimally satisfied but (4) is not and (3) is not outside the bands of triggered recounts -- then the following may happen:

A) BIDEN and TRUMPLOSE will settle to $1
B) WARREN, PETE, BLOOMBERG, and BERNIE will settle to $0
C) 72 hours later, TRUMP and TRUMPWIN will settle to $0.  However, any holder of TRUMP or TRUMPWIN on FTX may, if they wish, elect to pay $0.10 per contract before the 72 hour deadline to delay settlement of theirs until February 1st, 2021, at which point they would settle to $1 if and only if Trump had ultimately won reelection.

If, by 2020-11-09, none of the closing conditions of the contract have been triggered, then the contracts will not expire to $0 until February 2021.

This is a quickly developing situation.  As such, we will continue to monitor the conditions and make adjustments as needed, including but not limited to adjusting the above.  FTX retains the final rights to judgement over the contracts.

The above proposal is done with an eye towards:

a) staying true to the rules of the contracts

b) trying to avoid tying up users' capital in contracts needlessly

c) recognizing the complexity of this particular election

d) offering more options to our users

Note that this is not definitive, just an option we are actively considering right now.  This would strictly increase the set of options that users have, and not settle any contract to $0 that would not normally have been according to the rules as laid out below.

-------------------------

 

INCREASING MARGIN REQUIREMENTS:

Starting at 2020-10-31 8am HKT, we will:

1) increase initial margin requirement to $0.50, so you need $0.50 to get short 1 TRUMP or $0.36 (the current price of TRUMP) to get long 1 TRUMP.  If you were instead trading BIDEN @ $0.64, you would need $0.50 to get long but only $0.36 to get short, since that's the max loss.
2) increase maintenance margin requirement to $0.40 - $0.10 * days until the election.  However, as with initial margin, we never require more than the maximum loss; so if you are long TRUMP trading at $0.36, you only need $0.36 for maintenance margin.  So the full requirement is min(max loss, $0.40 - $0.10 * days until election).

The "days until election" is a continues rather than discrete variable (as in it slowly decreases rather than ticking straight from 2 --> 1).

 

Note that FTX retains the right to make further modifications as necessary, though we will endeavor to give as much notice as we can.

 

 

What are Trump 2020 and other President 2020 contracts?

TRUMP-2020 (TRUMP) is a futures contract on FTX.  TRUMP expires to $1 if Donald Trump wins the 2020 US presidential general election, and $0 otherwise.

Similarly, the other President 2020 contracts (those for other US 2020 Presidential candidates) settle to $1 if they win the 2020 election and $0 otherwise.

_____2020-02-10___4.30.48.png 

Hyper links: TRUMP; BERNIEBLOOMBERG; PETE; WARREN; BIDEN

 

How do you trade President 2020 contracts?

TRUMP and other President 2020 contracts trade the same way as other futures on FTX: you can go long or short using any of the available forms of collateral.  PnL is paid out in USD.

 

How much margin is required for President 2020 contracts?

The risk profile of President 2020 contracts are different from BTC: they have significantly higher chances of making large moves (to $0 or $1).

_____2020-02-10___4.58.30.png

All risk calculations for these contracts are based on the corresponding contract's "margin price". Refer to the table above -- TRUMP's, for instance, is $5.

_____2020-02-10___4.14.12.png

Hyper link: Position Limit WeightInitial Margin Factor 


Because of this, the required margin for one contract of any President 2020 future is as follows:

Initial Margin Fraction Requirement (IMF):  Min(standard IMF * size * margin price, size * mark price + (fees that would be paid to close if all taker) * margin price) / size.

Roughly speaking, Initial margin is Margin Price / leverage.

 

Maintenance Margin Fraction Requirement (MMF):

  • If Long: Min(standard MMF, Mark Price / Margin Price) 
  • If Short: Min(standard MMF, (1 - Mark Price) / Margin Price)

For info standard IMF and MMF (the IMF and MMF used for our standard futures), visit our Complete Futures Specs article.

 

Note that FTX reserves the right to increase margin requirements, with advanced notice, as we approach election day!

What does TRUMP and other President 2020 contracts expire to?

Each President 2020 contract expires to $1 if the corresponding candidate wins the 2020 US presidential general election, and $0 otherwise.

For instance, TRUMP expires to $1 if Donald Trump wins the 2020 US presidential general election, and $0 otherwise:

  1. TRUMP 2020 contract will settle to 1 in the event that Donald Trump is elected president of the United States, and to 0 otherwise.
  2. The election held in the United States on November 3, 2020 will determine who is elected president, and any person projected to receive at fewest 270 electoral votes per the electoral college system will be considered to have been elected president. 
  3. Each state has a different protocol for assigning its electoral votes to a candidate. If a state assigns all its electoral votes to the person who the plurality of its voters vote for (which is the case for most states), we project that all its electoral votes will go to the person the plurality of its reported voters voted for as of November 4, 2020 (according to all reporting precincts’ most recently reported numbers as of that time) should unreported votes not be enough to change the outcome. Other states divide their electoral votes pro rata according to fraction of votes each candidate received, and we will project a person will receive a fraction of any such state’s electoral votes in line with the fraction of the state’s votes that person receives, as of November 4, 2020.
  4. In event that, before all states have released official vote tallies, all of {The New York Times, 538, 270toWin, Fox, CNN} have determined that a set of states electoral votes are projected to go to a specific candidate such that they’ve determined that candidate will receive 270 or more electoral votes, FTX may choose to settle the contract according to that election result.
  5. In the event that some set of electoral votes cannot be projected according to the above criteria which leads to the impossibility of determining a candidate who is projected to receive 270 electoral votes, this contract will settle to $1 if Donald Trump is still president on February 1st, 2021, and $0 otherwise.

 

What do the price of TRUMP and other President 2020 contracts mean?

Theoretically--ignoring interest rates, fees, inefficiency, spread, etc.--the price of one contract of TRUMP should be equal to the probability that Trump wins reelection.  So if you think there's a 52% chance of Trump winning, then TRUMP should trade at $0.52; buying below there would be good, as would selling above $0.52.

Similarly, the price of one contract of any of the other President 2020 contracts should be roughly equal to the probability the corresponding candidate wins the election.

 

What are the fees for TRUMP and other President 2020 contracts?

Fees for President 2020 contracts are based on this formula:

Fee = Base Fee Rate * max($0.05, min($5, fill price * 50, [1 - fill price] * 50))

*Note that the $5 in this formula holds even for non-TRUMP President 2020 contracts.

So if your base fee rate was 0.05% and you bought one contract of TRUMP for $0.52, you'd pay $0.0025 in fees.  If you bought one contract of TRUMP for $0.99 or for $0.01, you'd pay $0.00025 in fees.

 

How does DEMSENATE work?

DEMSENATE expires to $1 if the Democratic party holds the Senate next year, and $0 otherwise.  In particular, it expires to $1 if any of the following hold:

 

a) The Senate Majority Leader is a Democrat at any point on or before February 1st, 2021 but after November 11th, 2020

b) The Senate Majority Leader has agreed to caucus with the Democratic party, received votes from the majority of the Democratic party, and didn't receive votes from the majority of the Republican party senators, at any point on or before February 1st, 2021 but after November 11th, 2020

c) The Democratic party, plus any other senators believed to intend to caucus with them, has a majority of the seats on February 1st 2021 (or a tie and controls the vice-presidency) and either (a) or (b) become true by April 1st 2021

 

Margin, fees, etc. work the same for DEMSENATE as they did for TRUMP contracts prior to the increased requirements around the election.  Margin requirements for DEMSENATE will likely tighten up as the Georgia runoff election (scheduled for 2021-01-05) draws closer.

 

__________________________________________

 

Previous
Next
360039118112
Didn't find what you were looking for?
Create a support ticket
Community

Was this article helpful?

2 out of 3 found this helpful