Trump 2024 Contract Explainer

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Notes

  1. FTX Token (FTT) is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States of America, you are not permitted to transact in FTT.
  2. Trading on FTX is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States of America, you are not permitted to trade on FTX.
  3. FTX retains the final right to interpretation of its rules and conditions on these and all contracts.
  4. FTX retains the final right to modify terms of its rules and conditions on these and all contracts.
  5. Trading Trump 2024 contract is not permitted by residents of the United States, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the UAE, Cambodia, Turkey, mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, and other FTX prohibited jurisdictions.

 

What is the Trump 2024 contract?

TRUMP-2024 (TRUMP2024) is a futures contract on FTX. TRUMP2024 expires to $1 if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential general election, and $0 otherwise:

    1. TRUMP2024 will settle to $0 if, after Democratic and Republican National Conventions prior to the 2024 general presidential election, Donald Trump is not the nominee for any major US political party and has not declared that he is running on any other ticket for the 2024 presidential general election.
    2. TRUMP2024 will settle to $0 if, on any day between 1 and 60 days after the 2024 presidential general election, the vast majority of major news networks have called the election for a candidate other than Donald Trump.
    3. Otherwise, TRUMP2024 will settle to $1 if Donald Trump is president on February 1st, 2025, and $0 otherwise; with the caveat that, if there was no inauguration or official continuation of term conducted due to various delays by then, TRUMP2024 may be extended to settle to $1 if Donald Trump is officially inaugurated president in 2024, and $0 if any other candidate is inaugurated.

FTX retains the final right to interpretation of this contract.  FTX will not entertain any objections to this contract’s settlement mechanisms.  Attempting to object will result in immediate account closure.  FTX may modify the terms at any point.  By trading these contracts, you are agreeing to abide by FTX’s interpretations of them.

 

How do you trade the TRUMP2024 contract?

TRUMP2024 contract trades the same way as other futures on FTX: you can go long or short using any of the available forms of collateral.  PnL is paid out in USD.

 

How much margin is required for the TRUMP2024 contract?

The risk profile of TRUMP2024 contract is different from BTC: it has significantly higher chances of making large moves (to $0 or $1).

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All risk calculations for these contracts are based on the corresponding contract's "margin price". Refer to the table above, TRUMP2024's margin price is $5.

 

 Contract  Margin Price  Position Limit Weight  Initial Margin Factor
 TRUMP2024  $5  10  0.0001

 

Because of this, the required margin for one contract of TRUMP2024 is as follows:

Initial Margin Fraction Requirement (IMF):  Min(standard IMF * size * margin price, size * mark price + (fees that would be paid to close if all taker) * margin price) / size.

Roughly speaking, Initial margin is Margin Price / Leverage.

 

Maintenance Margin Fraction Requirement (MMF):

  • If Long: Min(standard MMF, Mark Price / Margin Price) 
  • If Short: Min(standard MMF, (1 - Mark Price) / Margin Price)

For info about IMF and MMF (the IMF and MMF used for our standard futures), visit our Complete Futures Specs article.

 

Note that FTX reserves the right to increase margin requirements, with advanced notice, as we approach election day!

 

What does the price of TRUMP2024 contract mean?

Theoretically--ignoring interest rates, fees, inefficiency, spread, etc.--the price of one contract of TRUMP2024 should be equal to the probability that Donald Trump is reelected.  So, if you think there's a 52% chance of Trump winning, then TRUMP should trade at $0.52; buying below there would be good, as would selling above $0.52.  However, note that in practice it may trade at other prices, due to supply and demand, capital costs, or other factors.

 

What are the fees for the TRUMP2024 contract?

Fees for President 2024 contracts are based on this formula:

Fee = Base Fee Rate * max($0.05, min($5, fill price * 50, [1 - fill price] * 50))

So if your base fee rate was 0.05% and you bought one contract of TRUMP for $0.52, you'd pay $0.0025 in fees.  If you bought one contract of TRUMP2024 for $0.99 or for $0.01, you'd pay $0.00025 in fees.

 

 

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